With a median build year of 1978, most Henrietta garage doors are running on track and hardware that's pushing 45 years old, even where the door itself has been swapped out once along the way. Steel track sections from that era were mounted to the framing with lag bolts that loosen slowly over decades of the door opening and closing, and once a bracket starts to shift even a little, the rollers stop tracking true.
The cold makes it worse. This is a severe-cold climate band, and Rochester-area winters put real freeze-thaw cycling on anything metal bolted to a garage frame. Track brackets expand and contract with temperature swings, ice can build up in the track itself overnight, and a roller that hits a patch of ice mid-cycle can jump the rail rather than ride through it.
We also see this on doors where a bottom roller has worn down enough that it no longer sits square in the track - a slow failure that shows up as an occasional off-track event before it becomes a constant one. On original 1970s-era hardware, that wear has usually had a lot of years to accumulate.