Rochester sits in a cold-climate band with real winter severity, and that's the mechanism behind most Fairport off-track calls we see. Cold makes steel track brittle and grease inside rollers stiffen up, so a door that's already slightly misaligned is far more likely to bind, jump a roller, and come off track in January than in July. On Fairport's older housing stock, we also see openings where the original track was never perfectly plumb to begin with - it held for decades on a lighter, single-layer door, then started jumping once a heavier insulated replacement door went in.
The other common cause is a broken cable or a hinge that finally lets go after years of the door running slightly crooked. Either failure can drop one side of the door onto the track edge, bending it. We won't try to force a door back onto a bent track and call it fixed - that's the one thing that isn't worth doing halfway, because a track that looks straight but isn't will jump again within weeks.